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Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy? (PPR)
The verdict
Brock Purdy
97%confident
I benched my own favorite bargain for a man with nine games of tape. Even I want an explanation.
Here's the ledger: Hurts is our QB4 going QB11 — a seven-spot heist I've praised on other pages. He projects higher too, 19.3 to 18. Every honest number leans Hurts.
And yet. Purdy averaged 19.7 before his season ended, the projection dares to call that regression, and the room prices him QB12. Defending a man against a spreadsheet AND a market? That's my whole diet. 97% confident. Confidence and correctness are different departments.
↻ Re-roll it — the Hurts heist wins most other nights.
Jalen Hurts QB
PHI · Bye 10 · Age 28
ADP
93.7 · QB11
TwoGun Board
QB4 · #5
Dog
n/a
Brock Purdy QB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 26
ADP
100.4 · QB12
TwoGun Board
QB10 · #13
Dog
n/a
| Jalen Hurts | Brock Purdy | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +7 value | ▲ +2 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 18.8 | 19.7 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 9 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 315.9 | 294.0 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 19.3 | 18.0 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 98% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts? · Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts? · Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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