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Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert? (PPR)
The verdict
Dallas Goedert
99%confident
The older man, discounted and insulted, over the younger man priced correctly for wallpaper.
Goedert: 10.3 a game last year, projected 8.6 (objection sustained), three spots under board value, elder clause active. Ferguson: 8.7 a game, all seventeen, priced exactly right — which is the problem.
Correct prices don't win leagues. 99%.
↻ Re-roll for the wallpaper appreciation society.
Jake Ferguson TE
DAL · Bye 14 · Age 27
ADP
115.9 · TE11
TwoGun Board
TE12 · #133
Dog
n/a
Dallas Goedert TE
PHI · Bye 10 · Age 31
ADP
121.6 · TE12
TwoGun Board
TE9 · #118
Dog
n/a
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas Goedert | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | ▲ +3 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| 2025 games | 17 | 15 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 129.7 | 140.9 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 7.9 | 8.6 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 67% | 85% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — no dog math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: George Kittle or Jake Ferguson? · George Kittle or Dallas Goedert?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT