Should I draft Jake Ferguson or Dallas Goedert? (PPR)

The verdict

Dallas Goedert

99%confident

Two trimmed tight ends. I took the older, cheaper one, because that's the whole personality.

Ferguson projects 9.9 after an 11.1 season the spreadsheet shaved, at a price our board and the room agree on. Nothing free.

Goedert is our TE8 going TE12 at 10.4 projected after his own cut from 12.3, and he's 31. Four free spots, a bigger number, more birthdays. 99%.

↻ Re-roll — Ferguson's availability deserves a mention it didn't get.

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL · Bye 14 · Age 27

ADP

116.7 · TE11

TwoGun Board

TE11 · #116

Dawg

n/a

Dallas Goedert TE

PHI · Bye 10 · Age 31

ADP

120.8 · TE12

TwoGun Board

TE8 · #108

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Jake Ferguson	Dallas Goedert
Market vs our board	• fair price	▲ +4 value
2025 pts / gm (actual)	11.1	12.3
2025 games	17	15
2026 TwoGun proj pts	163.2	170.9
2026 proj / gm	9.9	10.4
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	67%	85%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — no dawg math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: George Kittle or Jake Ferguson? · George Kittle or Dallas Goedert?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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