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Should I draft A.J. Brown or Chris Olave? (PPR)
The verdict
A.J. Brown
77%confident
Olave's projection insult is real. Brown's dog rating is realer.
I keep a folder of players the spreadsheet has wronged, and Olave's in it — 13.6 trimmed to 12.1 for no visible crime. He also out-scored Brown last year. This page should be closer than it is.
It isn't, because the meter says 8 to 4 and Brown's the elder at a friendlier price. When my folder and my meter disagree, the meter wins. It's alphabetical. 77%.
↻ Re-roll — the folder wins ties on sentimental days.
A.J. Brown WR
NE · Bye 11 · Age 29
ADP
14.3 · WR8
TwoGun Board
WR9 · #58
Dog
8 /10
Chris Olave WR
NO · Bye 8 · Age 26
ADP
21.0 · WR10
TwoGun Board
WR12 · #63
Dog
4 /10
| A.J. Brown | Chris Olave | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | ▼ -2 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| 2025 games | 15 | 16 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 202.3 | 198.2 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 12.4 | 12.1 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 91% | 84% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 8 / 10 | 4 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown? · CeeDee Lamb or A.J. Brown? · Drake London or A.J. Brown?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT